U.S. Market Close - July 10, 2026

Very low VIX - but what's next ? Trump stays in the White House this weekend - what it means ? Also the most important earnings this week

How the majors finished on July 10, 2026 - a quiet risk-on close with the S&P and QQQ higher, oil easing, and the VIX breaking down hard.

The summer bearish decay line is gone

This is the headline for me. The S&P closed up 0.42% at 7,575, and the descending line I have been calling the summer bearish decay, the ceiling that swatted down every rally since June, is finally behind us. It is not resistance anymore. What sits overhead now is a rising line, the bullish resistance, and that is a very different kind of hurdle. One is a lid that holds you down. The other is a step you climb. Clear it and the next stop is a new all-time high, since the old record sits just above at around 7,620. QQQ told the same story, up 0.31% to 725 and back above its 50-day line. The tone has flipped from fighting a ceiling to reaching for the highs.

S&P 500 - up 0.42% to 7,575, with the old summer bearish decay line gone and only the rising bullish resistance left between here and a record.

The VIX broke down, and that is the tell

Volatility did the heavy lifting today. The VIX closed down about 5% at 15.0 and broke below the summer decay channel it had been riding. If nothing surprises us, this is the seasonal summer grind lower, and it can drift toward 14 and even 12 from here. That is the calm-market picture, and it is why stocks could float higher on light news.

Now the part you cannot skip. The risk and reward here is stretched, and it depends almost entirely on Iran. In our VIX note today I flagged that front-month VIX futures just fell below a three-year support that has only given way five times in five years (as per previous post), and two of those were in the last two months.