The Fed Changed One Word. The Bond Market Changed 27 Basis Points.

July 29, 2026: a 115-word statement, three hawkish dissents, and a 30-year yield back at levels last seen in 2007. Market first overreacted, then ignored it for the next 2 days.

The July FOMC meeting is going to matter more in September than it did on the day.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for the fifth meeting running. Three of the twelve v…