Short U.S. Pre-Market Update - July 10, 2026
So last day of the week - If VIX bounces up - we can see 7425. If VIX goes down further - we can see 7625 today!
Welcome to the last trading day of the week. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,543.64, which is almost exactly where it shut on Monday at 7,537.43. It dipped through the middle of the week and then clawed all of it back in one Thursday session, so we walk into Friday right where we started. Pre-market, the index is glued to about 7,540, held there by a big slug of positive gamma.
The levels that matter today
Everything sits inside a tight band right now. The pin is 7,540, and just above it, 7,545 is the line that changes the character of the tape. Clear 7,545 and hold it, and there is an enormous positive charm that wants to drag the $SPX toward 7,620 into the close. The catch is that the road up there runs through a stack of negative gamma, so it does not happen by itself. It needs the VIX to keep sliding for the move to breathe. If volatility drops hard once the cash market is open, that is your tell that this is the day it can happen.
The downside is simpler and a bit meaner. The pin holds until it doesn’t, and 7,525 is the level where it stops holding. Lose 7,525 and there is very little underneath you until 7,425, because the middle of that range has nothing defending it. 7,425 itself is a floor with a lot of put shorting stacked below it, and it would take a genuine catalyst to break through and drop lower. Working up from the recent lows, the market has now reclaimed the 7,480 line it spent June sliding beneath, so that old ceiling is doing the job of a floor.
One habit worth keeping: the tape almost always trades between these levels rather than tearing straight through them. So when price actually reaches one, that is the spot to take something off the table, especially if you are day trading or holding options into expiry.
