Short U.S. Market Update - July 21 Close
We went up, oil went up, the war heated up - everything up.
So we survived another stock market day, and on paper it was a good one. The S&P 500 rose 0.89% to 7,509.20 - its first close above 7,500 since last Thursday - QQQ added 1.9% as the chip rebound rolled on, the VIX got crushed 8.6% to 17.05, and the options tape leaned bullish from the opening bell to the last print. And yet the honest headline of the day is the thing that did not happen.
First, the report card against this morning’s map. The 7,435 floor was never visited - the low printed 7,467.86 in the first ten minutes and that was the extent of the bears’ day. The index then ground up through the 7,500 wall by midday, tagged 7,515.31, and there the squeeze-on-air warning cashed in full: the rally stopped almost to the point at the confluence overhead and spent the final three hours pinned to the strike, closing nine points above it. The wall did both of its jobs - magnet on the way up, ceiling once reached.
Now the red flag, and it comes with timestamps. The index made its high at around 12:50pm. The VIX made its low at around 3:45pm. Volatility kept collapsing for three more hours - an 8.6% single-day crush - and the S&P could not print a single new high on any of it. When the VIX falls that hard and the index still cannot leave the wall behind, the market is telling you it cannot be pushed much higher from here. That is the real story of this close, not the green number. Fittingly, the loudest voice against chasing it came from inside the biggest bank: Jamie Dimon, in an interview released late Monday, said he would not buy stocks at current prices and that investors are underestimating the geopolitical risks. Though he is a permabear.
