Short U.S. Market Update - July 1, 2026
Kevin Warsh - more rate hikes?
Yesterday handed the bulls something to hold. The S&P 500 / $SPX jumped 0.79% to close at 7,499, a clean bounce off Monday’s 7,440. It came alongside the Doha headlines, where the U.S. and Iran were meant to sit down and Iran never showed up for the Americans. The tape read the no-meeting as de-escalation rather than trouble, and it rallied into the close.
This morning the mood is more careful. Futures are pointing back down toward 7,470, and that number is not random. It is the put wall, and the market is opening right on top of it.
Where yesterday’s bounce ran out
The bounce was real, but it died in a familiar spot. Price ran straight into the falling line I keep marking as the SUMMER BEARISH DECAY, the trendline that has capped every rally attempt for weeks now. You can see it on the chart below, together with the never-ending range that has boxed price between roughly 7,340 support and 7,430 resistance, and the rising SUMMER SUPPORT underneath it all. The whole summer has looked like this. We push up, we tag the ceiling, we come back. Yesterday just knocked on the same door again.
The levels that matter today
