A data-driven deep dive into the world’s most dangerous chokepoint, the economics of closure, and why the coming months could reshape global energy markets.
The part I think the market still underestimates is the timeline mismatch.
Even if the military phase de-escalates faster than expected, insurance, clearance, and shipping normalization do not. That means the economic shock can outlast the headline shock by weeks or months.
Markets usually price the ceasefire first and the logistical reality later. In situations like this, that gap is where a lot of the mispricing lives.
The part I think the market still underestimates is the timeline mismatch.
Even if the military phase de-escalates faster than expected, insurance, clearance, and shipping normalization do not. That means the economic shock can outlast the headline shock by weeks or months.
Markets usually price the ceasefire first and the logistical reality later. In situations like this, that gap is where a lot of the mispricing lives.
Good point with this realty later being priced in